El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO climate cycle — equatorial Pacific sea temperatures rise 0.5°C+ above average, trade winds weaken, and weather patterns shift worldwide. Use this el nino tracker to monitor real-time conditions and understand what the data means for your region. NOAA declared the 2026 event official on June 11, with a 63% chance of reaching "super" strength by winter. Read the full explanation
An El Niño event is declared when the 3-month running mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°W–170°W) reaches or exceeds +0.5°C for at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. This metric is called the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also requires evidence of atmospheric coupling — weakened trade winds and shifts in tropical convection — before making an official declaration. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
A "super El Niño" is not an official NOAA classification but a term used when the Niño-3.4 SST anomaly reaches or exceeds +2.0°C. Only three events have reached this threshold in the modern instrumental record: 1982–83 (peak +2.2°C), 1997–98 (peak +2.4°C), and 2015–16 (peak +2.6°C). The 2023–24 event peaked at +2.0°C, borderline super status. These events produce the most dramatic global weather disruptions and economic impacts.
El Niño's effects vary by region and season. In general: Southern United States (California to Florida) experiences wetter, cooler winters; Northern United States and Canada see warmer, drier winters; Peru and Ecuador face heavy rainfall and flooding; Australia and Indonesia experience drought and increased wildfire risk; India's monsoon tends to weaken; and Atlantic hurricane activity is typically suppressed. These are statistical tendencies, not guarantees — each El Niño event behaves differently. Check the regional guides for your specific location. Source: NOAA CPC, IRI, WMO ENSO Update.
Key developments in ENSO monitoring and research, tracked and updated regularly. Use this el nino tracker alongside NOAA's weekly ENSO updates for the most current data.
NOAA declared El Niño 2026 on June 11, 2026. The Niño-3.4 index crossed the +0.5°C threshold — the minimum criteria for El Niño conditions. Forecasters estimate a 63% probability of the event reaching "super" strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) by November–January 2026-27. Subsurface ocean heat content across 9,000 miles of the equatorial Pacific is comparable to pre-1997 levels, the strongest historical analog. Read the full breakdown
NOAA CPC gives an 82% probability of El Niño continuing through July 2026. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) is projected to reach +2.7°C. Ocean Heat Content (OHC) exceeded 2.0 — a level not recorded since the 1997–98 super El Niño. The key uncertainty is not whether El Niño will persist, but its eventual peak intensity. Read the forecast breakdown
Subsurface ocean temperatures at 150 meters depth reached anomalies of +5°C in May 2026. These readings match the subsurface heat signature that preceded the 1997–98 Super El Niño. NOAA issued an El Niño Watch on May 14, 2026. Three weeks later, El Niño conditions were officially declared. Read the data that tipped them off
El Niño events release stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global surface temperatures. Climate scientists project that 2027 could become the hottest year on record due to the combined effect of El Niño and long-term global warming. There is a significant probability that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold during this event. Read about the climate connection
From the Walker Circulation to the thermocline — understand the physics of El Niño, the three phases of the ENSO cycle, and how it differs from La Niña.
From Peru's fisheries to Australia's droughts, from the Indian monsoon to North American hurricane seasons — trace El Niño's cascading effects worldwide.
1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16 — revisit the strongest El Niño events of the past century and how they reshaped societies and scientific understanding.
TAO buoy arrays, satellite remote sensing, climate models — how scientists track Pacific Ocean temperature changes and predict El Niño months in advance.
Pair these guides with our el nino tracker dashboard for a complete picture — real-time data plus actionable prep plans for your home, travel, garden, and health.
What to expect in your region: California rain, Midwest warmth, Northwest drought. Practical tips for each region.
Flood barriers, roof inspection, drainage, emergency kit checklist, and insurance review — step by step.
Which destinations benefit, which to avoid, ski conditions, cruise impacts, and travel insurance tips.
What to plant, when to plant, and how to protect crops from El Niño floods and drought.
How El Niño affects heating, cooling, and electricity costs — and practical ways to save money.
Heat stress prevention, flood safety, waterborne diseases, mosquito control, and mental health.
Impactos por región, pronóstico del IDEAM, y guía de preparación para agricultura, hogares y salud. En español.
Efectos país por país: desde México hasta Argentina. Sequía, inundaciones, y cómo prepararse. En español.
Sécheresse au Sahel, impact sur le cacao et la sécurité alimentaire. Guide par pays. En français.
Every El Niño and ENSO figure on this site is drawn from public NOAA and IRI data, not third-party summaries. Specific sources: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Oceanic Niño Index (ERSSTv5, oni.ascii.txt), the CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion, and the IRI/CPC model plume. ONI values and Niño region indices are retrieved and updated each month on NOAA's publication schedule. Last data refresh: September 2026.