El Niño Tracker: Current ENSO Status
El Niño is active as of September 2026. NOAA declared El Niño conditions on June 11, and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the Niño 3.4 region sits at +1.39°C — comfortably above the +0.5°C threshold. The Climate Prediction Center gives a 63% chance this event reaches Super El Niño strength by the 2026-27 winter. This tracker shows the three numbers that matter right now: the current ONI, the Niño region indices, and how 2026 compares to the Super El Niño events of 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023.
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — Last 5 Years
Source: NOAA CPC
Super El Niño Events — Peak Comparison
ONI peak values for each event's strongest 3-month period
Niño Region Indices — Latest Values
Niño 1+2
Far Eastern Pacific
Niño 3
Eastern Pacific
Niño 3.4
East-Central Pacific
Niño 4
Central Pacific
El Niño threshold: Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.5°C for 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods
How to Read This Tracker
The headline number is the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — a 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. NOAA declares El Niño when the ONI holds at or above +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods, and La Niña when it holds at or below −0.5°C. A "Super" El Niño is one whose peak ONI reaches +2.0°C. The four Niño regions tracked below map different parts of the equatorial Pacific: 1+2 is the far east off Peru, 3 is the eastern basin, 3.4 is the east-central strip that defines official ENSO status, and 4 is the central Pacific.
Current Status: What's Happening Now
The 2026 event is warming fast. The ONI has climbed from −0.21°C in JFM to +1.39°C in MJJ in five months — one of the sharpest La Niña-to-El Niño flips on record. Subsurface heat in the equatorial Pacific is rivaling the build-up seen before the 1997-98 Super El Niño, and the gap between the previous La Niña and this El Niño is the shortest since 1963. All four Niño regions are in positive territory, with the east-central Niño 3.4 leading at +1.39°C.
What Comes Next
The Climate Prediction Center assigns a 63% probability that this event reaches Super El Niño strength by the 2026-27 winter, with the peak most likely in the November-December-January window. If that happens, 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded, eclipsing the 2023-24 and 2015-16 El Niño years. For region-by-region impacts, see the global impacts and seasonal forecast guides.
Historical Super & Strong El Niño Events
| Event | Peak ONI | Strength | Duration | Peak Period | Global Cost (est.) | Key Feature |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.39* | Developing | Ongoing | — | — | Subsurface heat rivaling 1997; shortest La Niña→El Niño gap since 1963 |
| 2023-24 | +2.0 | Strong | 11 mo | NDJ 2023 | ~$75B | 5th strongest on record; hottest year globally; Southern Africa drought |
| 2015-16 | +2.6 | Super | 14 mo | NDJ 2015 | ~$100B | 3rd strongest; global coral bleaching; SYD-MEL heatwave |
| 1997-98 | +2.3 | Super | 13 mo | NDJ 1997 | $5.7T (5yr GDP) | Strongest of 20th century; Peru floods; Indonesia drought + fires |
| 1982-83 | +2.2 | Super | 14 mo | NDJ 1982 | $4.1T (5yr GDP) | 2nd strongest; caught scientists off guard; Australia drought |
| 1972-73 | +2.1 | Super | 11 mo | NDJ 1972 | ~$15B | Peruvian anchovy fishery collapse; Soviet grain purchases |
| 1965-66 | +2.0 | Strong | 12 mo | NDJ 1965 | — | First well-documented ENSO with satellite data |
Ocean Heat Content Trend
Equatorial Pacific upper-ocean (0-300m) heat content anomaly. Source: NOAA CPC
Data last updated: September 2026. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ONI data from ERSSTv5. *2026 value is MJJ 2026 ONI; event still developing. This dashboard is an independent project and is not affiliated with NOAA.
Raw ONI data ·
NOAA ONI page ·
Ocean heat content