ENSO Updates

Monthly commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, written to follow NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publication schedule.

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September 6, 2026

El Niño September 2026 Outlook: Tracking Toward Super Status

The 2026 event has reached an ONI of +1.39°C, with NOAA giving a 63% chance of Super El Niño strength. What to watch as the event heads toward its winter peak.

New posts are published each month around NOAA's ENSO diagnostic discussion (second Thursday). Subscribe or check the El Niño Tracker for the underlying data between updates.