The 2026-2027 El Nino Winter: What the Models Say
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's August 2026 ENSO update confirms El Nino conditions are intensifying, with the Nino 3.4 index at +1.2C and rising. Dynamic models from the NMME ensemble project a peak anomaly of +1.8C to +2.5C by December 2026. A moderate-to-strong El Nino winter is almost certain.
United States: The Classic Split
Southern Tier (California to Florida)
The southern US is the big winner during an El Nino winter. The enhanced subtropical jet stream funnels Pacific moisture across the southern states. California, Texas, and the Gulf Coast should expect 120-150% of normal precipitation.
Temperature: Near normal to slightly below normal in the Southwest.
Precipitation: 120-150% of normal from Southern California through the Gulf Coast.
Snow: Above normal in the Sierra Nevada. See our ski season forecast.
Northern Tier (Pacific Northwest to Great Lakes)
The polar jet stream shifts northward during El Nino, leaving the northern US warmer and drier than average. The Pacific Northwest sees below-normal precipitation. The Great Lakes region gets milder temperatures and reduced lake-effect snow.
Temperature: 2-5F above normal across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Precipitation: 70-85% of normal in the Pacific Northwest and upper Midwest.
Europe: Milder but Stormier
El Nino winters bring milder, wetter conditions to Northern Europe. The UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic states should expect temperatures 1-3C above normal. See UK winter forecast.
The Mediterranean region sees near-normal temperatures and slightly below-normal precipitation. The storm track shifts north, leaving Spain, Italy, and Greece somewhat drier.
Asia: A Continent of Contrasts
El Nino winters tend to be milder in East Asia. China, Japan, and Korea see temperatures 1-3C above normal.
Southeast Asia faces drier-than-normal conditions. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam should prepare for reduced rainfall. See Indonesia and Philippines.
Australia and New Zealand
Australia faces hotter, drier conditions but most severe impacts come during the southern hemisphere winter (June-August). By December, the impact on rainfall is less pronounced. New Zealand sees stronger westerly winds.
South America
Peru and Ecuador face heavy rainfall and flooding risk. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina see increased precipitation. The Amazon basin faces drought risk.
Key Uncertainties
Three major uncertainties: (1) If the event reaches Super El Nino status (>+2.0C ONI), impacts intensify non-linearly. (2) A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can amplify drought impacts. (3) The Arctic Oscillation can override El Nino patterns for weeks at a time.
Bottom Line
Southern US: prepare for a wet winter. Northern US or Europe: expect milder temperatures and less snow. Southeast Asia or Australia: watch for drought. Check the ENSO dashboard monthly as winter approaches.