El Niño 2026-27 Ski Season Forecast: Where to Ski (and Where to Skip)

Published: June 25, 2026 · 8 min read

If You're Booking a Ski Trip Right Now, Read This First

Here's the thing about El Niño and skiing: the pattern is surprisingly predictable, but the details will make or break your trip. The Pacific jet stream during an El Niño winter doesn't wander around randomly — it follows a well-worn path that climatologists have been tracking for decades. If you know where that path goes, you can book with confidence. If you don't, you might end up staring at grass in January.

The 2026-27 winter is shaping up as a moderate-to-strong El Niño. NOAA's June update puts the probability at 61% for El Niño conditions persisting through the end of the year, with the Niño-3.4 index likely landing somewhere between +1.0°C and +2.0°C. That puts us in moderate-to-strong territory — not quite a "super" event like 2015-16 or 1997-98, but strong enough to reshuffle the snow odds across the continent.

The Pattern: Why El Niño Does What It Does to Snow

During an El Niño winter, the subtropical jet stream gets supercharged. Warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific pump heat and moisture into the atmosphere, which strengthens and extends the subtropical jet eastward across the southern United States. Meanwhile, the polar jet stream — normally the main snow-delivery system for the northern tier — gets pushed north into Canada.

The practical result: storms that normally hit Washington and British Columbia get steered south. The Pacific Northwest turns warm and dry. California, the Southwest, and the southern Rockies turn into storm highways. It's not magic — it's just physics. More specifically, it's the displacement of the Aleutian Low and the strengthening of the subtropical ridge over western North America, which together create a split-flow pattern that funnels moisture into the southern branch.

The October-November-December period is particularly revealing this year. NOAA's latest seasonal outlook shows above-normal precipitation reaching farther north and east from the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies than earlier models suggested. The early season could be good across a wider swath than usual.

Winners: Book These Destinations

California and the Sierra Nevada. This is the most reliable bet in any El Niño winter, and 2026-27 looks no different. Mammoth, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Heavenly — these resorts sit directly in the subtropical jet's crosshairs. During the 2015-16 El Niño, Mammoth recorded over 400 inches at the base area. During the 2023-24 event, Palisades hit 500+ inches. The pattern is consistent: El Niño + Sierra = deep snow. The only variable is whether it comes as frequent moderate storms or a few massive atmospheric river events. Either way, you're skiing powder.

Southern and Central Rockies. Taos, Wolf Creek, Telluride, and Crested Butte all benefit from the southerly storm track. Wolf Creek in particular has a reputation as an El Niño darling — its location at the southern edge of the Colorado Rockies puts it in the crosshairs of every storm that slides across the Four Corners. The central Colorado resorts (Aspen, Vail, Summit County) are in more of an in-between zone, but the early-season precipitation signal for 2026 suggests they could still do well, especially November through January.

Arizona and New Mexico. Arizona Snowbowl and Taos Ski Valley are small enough that people overlook them, but they sit in prime position for an El Niño winter. The same subtropical moisture that feeds the southern Colorado resorts has to pass over these mountains first. Snowbowl's 2023-24 season was its deepest in a decade, and 2026-27 is shaping up similarly.

Losers: Maybe Skip These Unless You Get a Deal

Pacific Northwest and Coastal BC. Whistler, Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, Stevens Pass — these are the resorts that normally brag about the deepest snowpacks in North America. Not during an El Niño winter. The polar jet's northward shift means fewer storms, warmer temperatures, and a snow level that creeps up the mountain. That doesn't mean they'll get zero snow — Whistler's alpine will still be skiing. But the legendary base-area powder days that the region is famous for become rare. If you're booking the PNW, aim for February or March when the pattern sometimes relaxes and allows a late-season recovery.

Interior BC and the Canadian Rockies. Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Fernie — these resorts live and die by the polar jet, and during El Niño the polar jet is on vacation in northern Canada. The snow can still be good (Revelstoke's elevation helps), but consistency suffers. You might get one big cycle followed by three weeks of nothing, which is frustrating when you've booked a week-long trip and three of your five ski days are on hardpack.

The Wild Cards

Utah. The Wasatch sits right on the transition zone. During the 2015-16 El Niño, Alta got 413 inches (below average). During the 2023-24 El Niño, it got over 600 (well above average). The difference? The exact position of the storm track, which can shift by a couple hundred miles from one El Niño to the next. If you're booking Utah, Little Cottonwood Canyon (Alta, Snowbird) is the safest bet because orographic lift adds a bonus regardless of the synoptic pattern. Park City and Deer Valley are riskier — they rely more on direct storm hits.

Northeast. El Niño's influence on the East Coast is weaker and less predictable than out west. The general tendency is for warmer-than-average temperatures and near-normal precipitation, which translates to more mixed precipitation events and fewer pure powder days. But the East Coast's snow climate is driven more by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) than by ENSO, so a negative NAO phase can override the El Niño signal and deliver a great season regardless. If you're skiing the East, watch the NAO more than the Niño-3.4 index.

Europe. El Niño's reach extends across the Atlantic, but the signal is muted compared to North America. The Alps tend to see near-normal conditions during El Niño winters, with perhaps a slight tilt toward the southern resorts (Dolomites, southern French Alps) getting more storm activity. Scandinavia runs warmer and drier. But honestly, for European skiing, you're better off looking at the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast than worrying about ENSO.

How to Use This When Booking

If you're booking early (before November), prioritize California and the southern Rockies. The Sierra Nevada resorts have the highest probability of a deep season during El Niño, and the pattern is reliable enough that you're not gambling — you're playing the odds with a stacked deck.

If you can wait until December, watch the actual Niño-3.4 index and the weekly MJO phase. A strong MJO phase 8 in December combined with a Niño-3.4 above +1.5°C is basically a green light for everywhere south of I-70. If the Niño-3.4 stays below +1.0°C (weak event), the pattern gets less reliable and you might as well book wherever you find a good deal.

One last thing: don't over-index on the "super El Niño" headlines. The difference between a +1.2°C and a +2.2°C event matters less for skiing than you'd think. What matters more is where the storm track sets up, and that's determined by the broader Pacific pattern, not just the Niño-3.4 number. A moderate El Niño with the right MJO support can deliver a better ski season than a super El Niño with unfavorable intraseasonal variability.