Current ENSO Status — July 2026: El Niño Strengthening
Published: July 25, 2026 · Updated weekly with NOAA ENSO data
Current ENSO Status
Phase: El Niño (Advisory) · Niño-3.4: +1.4°C · SOI: -12.3 · Subsurface: +1.8°C avg · Forecast: 82% probability persists through DJF 2026-27
Status at a Glance
El Niño conditions are present and strengthening across the tropical Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center maintains an El Niño Advisory, meaning El Niño conditions are observed and expected to continue. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows all the textbook signatures of a developing moderate-to-strong El Niño event.
This page is updated weekly with the latest CPC ENSO update data. The next major update is the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, published the second Thursday of each month.
Ocean Indicators
| Indicator | Current Value | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niño-3.4 | +1.4°C | Moderate | ↑ Rising |
| Niño-3 | +1.7°C | Strong | ↑ Rising |
| Niño-4 | +0.9°C | Weak | → Stable |
| Niño-1+2 | +2.1°C | Strong | ↑ Rising |
| Subsurface (0-300m avg) | +1.8°C | Very high | ↑ Rising slowly |
| Subsurface (max pocket) | +3.0°C at 150m | Extreme | ↑ Rising |
| Ocean Heat Content | +2.1 | Highest since 1997 | ↑ Rising |
The Niño-3.4 index, the standard metric for ENSO monitoring, has risen from +0.6°C in March to +1.4°C in mid-July. That's a steady climb of about 0.2°C per month — consistent with a developing event that will peak in late 2026. The eastern Pacific (Niño-1+2, Niño-3) is warming faster than the central Pacific (Niño-3.4, Niño-4), which is the classic pattern for a basin-wide El Niño rather than a Modoki (central-Pacific) event.
Atmospheric Indicators
| Indicator | Current Value | El Niño Signal? |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Oscillation Index (30-day) | -12.3 | ✅ Strong El Niño signal |
| Equatorial SOI (30-day) | -15.7 | ✅ Strong El Niño signal |
| 850mb Zonal Wind (5°N-5°S) | Westerly anomalies | ✅ Trade winds weakened |
| 200mb Velocity Potential | Negative over central Pacific | ✅ Convection shifted east |
| OLR Anomaly | Negative (more clouds) | ✅ Enhanced convection |
The atmosphere is fully coupled to the ocean. The SOI has been negative for 15 of the last 18 weeks. Westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific have been occurring roughly every 3-4 weeks since March, each one pushing more warm water eastward and reinforcing the El Niño. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data shows that deep convection — the massive tropical thunderstorm complexes — has shifted from the Maritime Continent toward the central and eastern Pacific, exactly as expected during El Niño.
The Subsurface Story
The most important number on this page might be the subsurface temperature anomaly: +1.8°C averaged across the upper 300 meters of the equatorial Pacific, with pockets reaching +3.0°C at 150 meters depth. This is the heat reservoir that will feed the El Niño over the coming months.
Think of it this way: the surface warming you see in the Niño indices is only the visible part of the event. The subsurface is the battery. Right now, that battery is fully charged — the second-highest Ocean Heat Content reading for any July since reliable subsurface measurements began in 1979, behind only 1997.
The equatorial thermocline — the sharp boundary between warm surface water and cold deep water — is nearly flat across the basin, tilted down in the east and up in the west. This configuration means upwelling of cold water off the South American coast has effectively shut down, removing the main brake on further eastern Pacific warming.
Model Forecasts
The IRI/CPC plume of dynamical and statistical model forecasts, updated mid-July 2026, shows:
- Dynamical models (CFSv2, ECMWF, UKMO, etc.): Average Niño-3.4 of +1.9°C for OND 2026, range +1.4°C to +2.8°C
- Statistical models: Slightly lower, average +1.6°C for OND 2026
- Consensus: 82% probability El Niño persists through DJF 2026-27; 72% through FMA 2027
- Intensity: 35-40% chance of Super El Niño (peak > +2.0°C); 55% chance strong (peak +1.5°C to +2.0°C)
The model spread is narrower than at the same lead time before the 2015-16 or 2023-24 events, increasing confidence in the forecast. No model in the plume shows a return to neutral or La Niña conditions before spring 2027.
What Changed This Week
The third week of July 2026 brought three notable developments. The MJO moved into phase 6-7 (western Pacific), triggering the fifth significant westerly wind burst of the year — this one stronger than the April and May bursts. Niño-3.4 ticked up from +1.3°C to +1.4°C, continuing a 14-week streak of week-over-week increases. And the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia shifted its ENSO Outlook from "Watch" to "Alert," aligning with NOAA's existing Advisory status.
Looking Ahead
The key dates for the next ENSO forecast updates: the CPC weekly update every Monday, the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on August 13, and the IRI/CPC model plume update in mid-August. The August discussion is expected to include the first explicit intensity forecast for the winter 2026-27 peak.