El Niño Year Timeline — Every Event from 1950 to 2026
A complete chronological record of every El Niño event since modern measurement began. Events are classified by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — the 3-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. Data sourced from NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Last updated: August 2026.
Ranked by ONI Peak Strength
| Rank | Years | Peak ONI | Classification | Notable Impacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2015–2016 | +2.6°C | Super | Global coral bleaching, California drought relief, warmest year on record |
| 2 | 1997–1998 | +2.4°C | Super | $5.7B US damage, massive Peru flooding, Indonesia drought |
| 3 | 2023–2024 | +2.1°C | Super | Amazon drought, Australia bushfires, global heat records |
| 4 | 1982–1983 | +2.1°C | Super | $8B global damage, Galápagos ecosystem collapse |
| 5 | 1972–1973 | +1.9°C | Strong | Peruvian anchovy fishery collapse, Soviet grain shortage |
| 6 | 2009–2010 | +1.6°C | Strong | California storms, Southeast Asia drought, Amazon dieback |
| 7 | 1957–1958 | +1.5°C | Strong | First satellite-observed El Niño, Hawaii drought |
| 8 | 1991–1992 | +1.5°C | Strong | Africa drought, Texas floods, Pinatubo cooling offset |
| 9 | 1965–1966 | +1.4°C | Strong | Australian drought, Indian monsoon failure |
| 10 | 2002–2003 | +1.3°C | Moderate | Australian drought, weak Indian monsoon |
Complete Timeline 1950–2026
2026 — Possible Super El Niño Watch Active
NOAA models project a 63% chance of strong-to-super conditions developing. Follow monthly updates.
2023–2024 — Super El Niño Peak ONI: +2.1°C
One of the five strongest on record. Global temperatures broke all-time highs. Amazon basin experienced record drought.
2018–2019 — Weak El Niño Peak ONI: +0.9°C
Late-developing event with minimal global impacts. California saw above-normal precipitation.
2015–2016 — Super El Niño Peak ONI: +2.6°C
Strongest El Niño ever recorded. Global coral bleaching event (93% of Great Barrier Reef affected). 2016 became warmest year on record at the time.
2009–2010 — Moderate-to-Strong Peak ONI: +1.6°C
Central Pacific "Modoki" pattern. California drenched by atmospheric rivers. Southeast Asia severe drought.
2006–2007 — Moderate Peak ONI: +1.0°C
Moderate event. Australian wheat production dropped 60%. Mild northern US winter.
2004–2005 — Weak Peak ONI: +0.7°C
Weak warming. Warmer-than-average temperatures across western US and Canada.
2002–2003 — Moderate Peak ONI: +1.3°C
Australian severe drought. Weakest Indian monsoon since 1987. US winter warmer than average.
1997–1998 — Super El Niño Peak ONI: +2.4°C
Most impactful El Niño of the 20th century. $5.7B US economic damage. California mudslides. Indonesia fires. Peru floods displaced 250,000.
1994–1995 — Moderate Peak ONI: +1.0°C
California received 200% normal rainfall. Southern US flooding events.
1991–1992 — Strong Peak ONI: +1.5°C
Occurred alongside Mount Pinatubo eruption. African drought. Texas floods.
1986–1987 — Strong Peak ONI: +1.2°C
India faced one of worst droughts of the century. Peru flooding.
1982–1983 — Super El Niño Peak ONI: +2.1°C
Most destructive El Niño before 1997. $8B global damages. Galápagos fur seal population crashed by 50%. Unprecedented at the time — caught forecasters off guard.
1979–1980 — Weak Peak ONI: +0.6°C
Brief weak warming. Limited global impact.
1976–1977 — Weak-to-Moderate Peak ONI: +0.8°C
Followed by major Pacific climate shift. Eastern US cold winter.
1972–1973 — Strong Peak ONI: +1.9°C
Peruvian anchoveta fishery collapsed — catch dropped from 10M to 2M tons. Triggered global protein shortage. Soviet Union forced to purchase US grain.
1969–1970 — Weak-to-Moderate
The second of back-to-back warming events. Northern Europe mild winter.
1968–1969 — Moderate Peak ONI: +1.0°C
Moderate event. Peru fishing impacts.
1965–1966 — Strong Peak ONI: +1.4°C
Major Indian monsoon failure. Severe Australian drought.
1963–1964 — Moderate Peak ONI: +0.9°C
Moderate warming. Northern US mild winter.
1957–1958 — Strong Peak ONI: +1.5°C
First El Niño observed by satellite (Sputnik-era). Hawaii severe drought.
1953–1954 — Moderate Peak ONI: +0.8°C
One of the earliest documented ENSO events in the modern record.
1951–1952 — Weak Peak ONI: +0.5°C
Borderline weak event. La Niña followed immediately.
Key Observations
- Super El Niños are becoming more frequent. Before 1982, no event had exceeded +2.0°C ONI. Since 1982, four events have crossed that threshold.
- The 2023–2024 event was the warmest in context of global warming, though its ONI peak (+2.1°C) was lower than 2015–2016 (+2.6°C).
- The average return period is 3–4 years, but intervals range from 1 to 7 years between events.
- Strong events are typically followed by La Niña within 6–18 months. The 2024–2025 La Niña followed this pattern.
Data Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). ONI values use ERSSTv5. For the latest ENSO status, visit the El Niño Guide homepage.