How does El Niño affect crop yields?

El Niño creates a mixed picture for agriculture. In wet zones, excessive rain can delay planting, rot roots, and hamper harvests. In dry zones, drought reduces yields for rain-fed crops. Globally, El Niño has been associated with lower yields for rice, wheat, soybeans, and sugarcane in affected regions.

Which crops are most vulnerable to El Niño?

Rice production in Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable due to monsoon disruption. Coffee production in Central America and Vietnam, cocoa production in West Africa, and sugarcane in India and Brazil all show significant sensitivity. Soybean and corn production in South America can be affected by both flooding and drought depending on the region.

How do commodity prices respond to El Niño?

Agricultural commodity prices typically rise 5-15% during strong El Niño events. The most affected commodities include cocoa, coffee, rice, and palm oil. The UN FAO estimates that strong El Niño events reduce global agricultural output by 2-4% in affected regions.

El Niño's Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Prices

Published: May 14, 2026 · 8 min read

TL;DR

El Niño disrupts global agriculture — drought in Australia, India, and Southeast Asia reduces grain production while wet conditions in South America boost soybean harvests. Net effect is upward pressure on food prices.

El Niño's Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Prices

Climate and the Food System

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